Real Estate Market Update for McDowell Mountain Ranch
April 14th, 2009
The real estate market appears to be improving in the 1st quarter of 2009. It is only a slight improvement, but it is an improvement. The following analysis is based on home sales over the 1st quarter of 2009.
The pending numbers for early April point to an increase in sales, but we will not know for sure until they are recorded as “closed” sales.
Overall, the number of single family home sales in McDowell Mountain Ranch increased 31% in the 1st quarter of 2009 vs the 4th quarter 2008. There was an 8.6% improvement over 1st quarter 2008 numbers. While the numbers were a moderate 38 units sold, it is an improvement. As a reference point, the peak of the real estate market was 74 homes sold in 2nd quarter 2007 and the bottom was 28 homes sold in 4th quarter 2008.
Although the number of homes sold increased, it appears that there will continue to be downward pressure on prices, as more pre-foreclosure and REO properties become available on the market.
The numbers break down like this…
120 active homes on the market
12 active with contingencies
28 pending sales (good news!)
12.6 homes sold/month in the 1st quarter
This equates to a 9.5 month supply of homes available
The average list price for homes is $246.14/sf
The average sales price for homes is $214.61/sf
The trading range is 12.8%
As for Trovas, the numbers remain weak. There was 1 sale in Trovas in the 1st quarter 2009. Up until the 1st quarter 2008, Trovas averaged 1-2 sales per month. A Dante model which was 3381sf sold for $799,000. This is an average of $236.28/sf.
|The numbers for Trovas break down like this…
10 active homes on the market ranging in price from $599k - $1.375mm
0 pending
1 sale last quarter
.33/sales per month
This equates to a 30 month supply of homes available
The average list price is $259.89/sf
The average sales price is $236.28/sf
The trading range is 9.1%
We did an analysis of a more specific market within McDowell Mountain Ranch. This is for homes that are listed for over $700,000. This part of the market continues to suffer. There were only 5 sales in the first quarter. This is an all time low compared to the high point of 39 sales in the 2nd quarter of 2006.
Here are the numbers...
52 active homes on the market priced over $700,000
6 active with contingencies
4 pending sales
5 sales in the past 3 months
1.67 ave home sales/mo
31 month supply of homes available
Average list price = $287.11
Average sales price = $260.95
The trading range is 9.1%
The financing issues continue to be the biggest impediment to sales of higher end homes. It appears that the credit crunch is requiring buyers to have very good credit and large down payments to get any financing. This is causing pressure on all higher end properties to offer value to the limited pool of qualified buyers.
Due to the tremendous supply of homes available (30 month supply) Seller’s need to create a very appealing value proposition. It is a buyer’s market. What is your value proposition? Great price, great location, large lot, upgrades and/or updated fixtures, etc.
Creating an appealing value proposition is what is selling in the higher end market. Make your value proposition appealing and your home will be one of the few that sells in this market, this year.
For more information or to learn more about our value proposition, give us a call at 480-235-7522.
Teresa Atkinson, CDPE, CRS
Certified Distressed Property Expert
Residential/Relocation Specialist
480-235-7522
Teresa@agHomes.com
RE/MAX Excalibur 8510 E Shea Scottsdale, AZ
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